Russia’s cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target. Carbon Management
|Title||Russia’s cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target. Carbon Management|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2015|
|Authors||Sharmina, M, Larkin, A, Anderson, K|
|Keywords||2 °C target, carbon budgets, Cumulative emissions, major emitters, Russia|
Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, having been in the top five for at least six decades. However, thus far no in-depth study has estimated Russia's cumulative emissions in the context of the global 2°C constraint. This is despite the IPCC reiterating the importance of cumulative emissions. Translating the global 2°C temperature commitment into a meaningful national context, this paper derives and evaluates 2°C-compatible carbon budgets for Russia, based on a range of apportionments. The work contributes to the debate by providing a deeper analysis of the principles of allocating carbon emissions to Russia. This analysis demonstrates how, if Russia is to make a fair contribution to global emission reductions in line with 2°C, its 2011–2100 cumulative emissions should stay within 20-26 Gt CO2, commensurate with a 37–52% probability of exceeding 2°C. If Russia continues to emit carbon dioxide at current annual levels, this budget will be “spent” by the mid-2020s. The carbon budget estimated here for Russia appears technically feasible, if extremely challenging. Despite continuing to assert itself as a fossil fuel superpower, Russia has a wealth of opportunities for full and early decarbonization, including the potential to become a net exporter of renewable energy.